Jay's oeuvre

A bit of jazz in blog, however, falls tremendously short of being a musical

The Bear Hug: Signs of Economic Downturn

I was fresh out of college armed with a MBA, and was lodged in a plush Mumbai Hotel for the induction into a conglomerate. I had a room partner - Aditya, he was a Kannadiga (IIT + IT sector + overseas stint + MBA). He typified a generation of Super Techies, bred under the carpet revolution which has swept the nation in the past decade. The IT sector in India has been growing immensely, fuelled by outsourcing and some smart leaders like Narayanmurthy and Azim Premji. For many a IITian/NITian/BITian, it was obvious to board the bus.
These super techies were well educated and smart, but the job on offer was comparatively mundane. The money on the other hand was easy, there was lure of overseas stint, and a better quality of corporate life that the new IT companies offered.However, two things happened in this unholy alliance -

1. Soon, with an experience of 2 - 3 yrs they were bored and looking to get the MBAs by cracking things like CAT/GMAT etc.

2. The bored super techie, with ample time/money on hand and an easy tech access - got interested in Online indulgence into the Equity Market and its cousins . No wonder emergence of the online brokerage/penetration of internet/booming economy and the bored Super Techie in an IT company forged an alliance.

Aditya, fell prey to the "obvious second one", stated above; whereas,I was still as non serious as I was two years back (prior to my MBA days). Aditya, in the dinner table would randomly throw a few questions to me like - "given a chance which sector you would bet on?". Then, what would follow was typical MBA global gyan on sectoral growth. Real estate,Retail and Infrastructure would form the core of our discussions. One interesting thing he had revealed to me during such discussions was - his penchant to back companies with strong leaders and an easy way out is - the companies driven by IITians. Thus, he would discuss with me - IndiaBulls, its rise and future growth plans. I was impressed indeed. He would also explain his game plan - The Markets are on the rise and its gonna surge like this for probably next two years - Here is the chance to maximize our gains and then it will be a super neo Hindu growth story.

Its been one year and things have changed since then. I am looking to call him soon and let him know a few of the things that is happening now:

pencil. An erstwhile busy Investment Banker is finding time to comment on my Tagboard. Wackiness of his comments are not at all proportional to "the squeeze" in the market.( Who is etika eek).

pencil. A famous movie from 80s starring Charlie Sheen and Michael Douglas, is going to the editor's table and now the opening trailer would read "Once upon a time in NY, there was a wall street.."

pencil. Top 10 Email Spams: A forwarded email by a colleague of mine is finding a place into the top 10 email Spams. This was an email on the walk-ins for Lehman Employee's by another Investment Bank in India.

pencil. Corporate Bankers: With work, less likely to come by,the city bankers have installed NFS (need for speed) on their comps. No corporate client is likely to walk by, to borrow money at such high interest rates.

pencil. Jaywalking Jay is back to blogging - He has time to sit and fiddle around with his comp. The sudden space has been provided by the decision to cull new retail projects and go slow on spending.

pencil. Super techie Thorny is looking for start-ups. New projects are drying up for the IT biggies. Banking is a big customer.

pencil. My consistent cousin who talks once a year to me had called to say "Hi". During the conversation, he drops in the news of layoffs to be announced by the Steel sector in coming months and how he is wondering what to do. Surely, one option is to pass on the CV to me.

These fretting facts, though from different parts of the world they are, point towards one inevitable truth - The slowdown is here - before than we expected and more monstrous than we have ever seen.

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